British swine flu cases rise by nearly 50% in a week

Fresh figures showing the rapid spread of swine flu across the UK will be released this afternoon as returns from GP surgeries show a rise of almost 50% in the last week.The briefing from Sir Liam Donaldson, the government's chief medical officer, will provide updates on infection rates, numbers being treated in hospital and whether there have been more deaths.Surveillance data from the Health Protection Agency will give a clearer picture of the progress of the pandemic. The death toll from the H1N1 virus stands at 16. The government is expected to announce the launch of a national swine flu helpline.The flu is spreading fast across much of Britain and the total of those affected rose by 46% in the seven days up to last Sunday, according to data provided by family doctors.Among new suspected cases is Cherie Blair. The former prime minister's wife pulled out of an honorary ceremony at Liverpool Hope University after falling ill and is reported to have been given a course of Tamiflu. Tony Blair and the couple's children have shown no signs of infection.Health ministers from across the UK – including those from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – are now attending weekly meetings of the government's civil contingencies committee, Cobra, to assess the impact of the disease.Information collected by the Royal College of General Practitioners' research and surveillance centre in Birmingham, which monitors communicable and respiratory disease, shows that the rate of people diagnosed with influenza-like illness in the north of England leapt from 6.6 per 100,000 of population from 29 June to 6 July to 37.2 per 100,000 between 6 and 16 July – almost a sixfold increase.It more than doubled in central England from 42.8 to 93.9 per 100,000 but only rose slightly in the south from 72.1 to 74.9 per 100,000. However, cases in London – the swine flu "hotspot" along with the West Midlands – declined from about 180 to 140 per 100,000. Across England, the incidence increased from 50.3 to 73.42 during that week, a rise of 46%.Professor Steve Field, the chairman of the Royal College, said: "Swine flu is spreading rapidly across the whole of the country now. GPs are saying that they are coming under a lot of pressure from patients who have it and many GPs say that the publicity surrounding the death of six-year-old London schoolgirl Chloe Buckley has increased demand and made people more anxious, although there is no reason for them to be so."Children between five and 14 remain the worst affected, with an incidence rate of 160 per 100,000. The rate among under-fives is 114 per 100,000 and 89.4 among those aged 15-44.The Royal College of GPs today complained that a submission it made to a House of Lords committee had been taken out of context. It insisted that it was "very pleased" with the responsiveness of health officials to the emergency. It had been asked to provide feedback from GPs about swine flu. Among one of the comments was that: "Family doctors also noted that conflicting advice was being provided by different agencies."The NHS Direct website tells patients: "If swine flu is confirmed, ask a healthy friend or relative to visit your GP to pick up a document entitling you to antiviral medication." The statement raises the expectation that those diagnosed will automatically be given Tamiflu or Relenza to help reduce the flu's severity.But advice circulated by the Royal College makes clear that even if a diagnosis is confirmed, clinical discretion means it may not be necessary to prescribe antiviral drugs to an infected but generally healthy patient. The advice given to GPs treating those diagnosed with swine flu who are not in a vulnerable medical category is to "consider authorisation of antivirals bearing in mind whether the patient has a strong preference for active treatment".Field agreed that there appeared to be an "inconsistency" between the two lines of advice. "The last time [the advice] was changed was to give more discretion to GPs for dealing with those outside the at risk groups and partly to send the message to patients that they don't all need Tamiflu," he said.The decision about whether to prescribe should be reached in "partnership" between doctor and patient, he said. "I don't think it's the GP's job not to give it."The Department of Health said it did not believe there was any difference in the advice being proffered. "There's not going to be a case of people being refused Tamiflu," a spokeswoman said.A GP who contacted the Guardian said the differing advice being given to GPs and patients was placing an unnecessary burden on GPs and out of hours care "resulting in hysteria and patients in real need being put at risk" because people were being told they needed Tamiflu "when they don't".Gloucestershire police today defended the decision to send three officers wearing face masks, gloves and overalls into a house containing a suspected swine flu victim. "It was a precaution at the time but won't necessarily become standard practice," said a spokeswoman.